In an open seminar, I illustrated back-to-back billboards with a card, which showed the same effect or not. I even reported results from a 500-hand experiment that showed that first base wasn’t worse when the first base got all 500 hands wrong, just as when the third base got the base strategy right.
And yet this myth continues. I get e-mails, letters, complaints, and comments repeatedly from other players who claim that the reason a good player loses is to play with a “flop” (bad player). So there’s only one thing left. I’m hesitant because most of you know how much you hate numbers, but you’ve forced me into it. I’m forced to provide simple mathematical proof that another player’s mistake doesn’t affect your chances of holding your own hand at all.
Now don’t talk to me. I didn’t tell you that another player’s mistake could harm you. It could happen. It could do your hand. It works both ways. And it works both ways at random, so everything will eventually wash away. The point is that other player’s mistake doesn’t hurt your chances of getting your hand up. 온라인경마
Here’s an example situation. We’ve simplified it to make things as clear as possible. It’s on first base and 14 on third base. The dealer is doing 5 ups. When the dealer points to third base, he accidentally grabs the hole card in the sleeve and flips it up. It’s 10 points! Now we know she has 15.
If we find out that there are only five cards left in the shoe, and they consist of four 10-point and one 6-point card. So when a third baseman hits, he gets four 10-point shooting opportunities out of five. But if he stands, the dealer gets four chances of success out of five. Apparently, the best chance for a third baseman to hold his hand is standing.
But the real question is, which third-base play gives you the best chance to hold your hand at first base. This is where very few people can see the forest through the trees. So, one by one, let’s remove the trees.
Since we have five cards left, we theoretically divide them five times in two ways. If third base stands five times, the dealer (on average) takes four times for 10 and grabs six to make 21. So you on first base will get your hands on four times out of five. That’s an 80% win rate.
Now, if the third baseman hits five times, he has to hit four or 10 unnecessarily. So hitting a hit is a bad play for him. You know, if the third baseman catches 10, the three 10s are given three, the sixes are given to the dealer. So the dealer will catch 10 of those four times.
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